An unfamiliar wave of optimism has engulfed Villa Park over the last week thanks to a much needed return of four points from our last two games. The dreaded hope has flooded back into our hearts and, suddenly, there are signs that maybe, just maybe, the club could actually escape what seemed like certain doom just one week ago.
However, the pessimist (or perhaps the realist) in me is still not convinced.
Before last Tuesday’s heroics against Crystal Palace, we were eleven points from safety. Despite us picking up those four points, we are currently now nine points from seventeenth-placed Newcastle United. Effectively, with our inferior goal difference, we still need ten points and hope that all the other teams around us stand still before we can even get out of the relegation zone.
The problem is that teams such as Newcastle United, Sunderland and A.F.C Bournemouth are all winning. I believe the Swans have completely lost their way and will be relegated. Even my other nomination for the drop, the Canaries, are picking up points here and there and recorded back to back wins a few weeks ago.
However, even more than worrying about the other teams, is the worry about ourselves. I think both the Crystal Palace and Leicester City results were… fortuitous.
There, I said it.
Don’t get me wrong, our performances were a huge improvement on what we were treated to over the Christmas period. Whilst we carved out a number of good chances in both games, we didn’t actually put any of those chances away; instead we have Wayne Hennessey and his presumably Teflon-coated gloves to thank for the win against Crystal Palace and a big deflection off Wes Morgan to thank for our point against Leicester City.
In short, the two goals that we scored last week were very lucky ones. It is about time we had some luck, of course, but luck doesn’t last forever and can’t be relied upon.
Garde’s team selection has certainly helped us on our way to being in a position to scrape those goals. As I say, whilst I may think that our goals were fortuitous, I also believe that those goals changed from being merely consolation goals into point-winning goals because of the team’s performance. We have looked a hundred times more cohesive and have been so much more impressive at the back. Whilst I am pleased that some pressure is off Garde for once, I am slightly miffed that it has taken so long to see what everyone else has known for so long.
I also can’t help but feel that Garde has perhaps stumbled upon some of the decisions made rather than pulling off a masterstroke.
For example, if we hadn’t had the FA Cup game with Wycombe Wanderers, would Mark Bunn have been given a chance? Garde didn’t field a particularly weakened side that day but it was certainly an opportunity to give Bunn an outing against lower league opposition. Garde had either already seen it as an opportunity to break him in gently to replace Guzan or used the game for rotation purposes and then had a eureka moment and decided that Bunn is actually a much more stable option than Guzan is right now.
The fact the Guzan had been allowed to blunder his way through twenty league games in a season is mind-blowing. When people talk about a goalkeeper and say ‘he’s a great shot stopper’, I believe that is the very least a goalkeeper should be. It’s the easiest part of a goalkeeper’s game. Guzan had even lost this ability, letting in goals when shots came straight towards him (think Norwich City and Newcastle United). Don’t get me started on his command of the box and, even worse, his distribution!
I hate to single out one player but I genuinely believe that we would at least be in with a fighting chance if it wasn’t for Guzan. Crucial points have been lost because of him. Even going back to the start of the season, an array of mistakes cost us points. The halfwitted pass to put Jordan Amavi under pressure in the eighty-seventh minute at Selhurst Park led to a goal and ensured we lost 2-1. The calamitous attempt to claim the ball for Nathan Dyer’s eighty-ninth minute winner meant a 3-2 defeat at the King Power Stadium. The gaping hole left exposed by his incredibly poor positioning allowed Yann M’Vila to stroke home a free kick in the 2-2 draw with Sunderland. There was also a poor pass out to Joleon Lescott against Chelsea, although Lescott himself must accept some responsibility. As alluded to previously, the shots which were straight at his body but still went through him in the more recent games at Norwich and Newcastle cost us dearly. Those are just six examples off the top of my head; I’m sure there are still a couple more.
Whilst he probably isn’t the answer long term, Bunn should have been given a chance so much sooner. Apart from a rush of blood against Leicester City, where he came hurtling way out of his area and picked up a booking, he has looked so much more assured than Guzan. It was worth making the change just to rid the air of expectancy of mistakes surrounding Guzan, which will permeate through the defence. There was no confidence in him from either the fans or the players. His absence has made a huge difference so far.
That brings us on to the defence. I know Alan Hutton is a weak link yet I find it hard to knock him too harshly due to the fact that he does usually put in a shift for us. The fact is that he just isn’t good enough and he is prone to costly mistakes. His injury has forced Garde into making changes at right back, with Leandro Bacuna slotting in. This is a change which should have occurred without it being forced upon us. Hutton would not have been dropped.
The word on the omission of Micah Richards is that he wasn’t fully fit for the Crystal Palace game after he picked up a knock against Wycombe Wanderers. I had expected to see him recalled for the Leicester City game and hoped he would slot in at right back. However, it is a place on the bench right now for Richards. It will be interesting to see if his absence is continued going into tonight’s replay with Wycombe Wanderers and then into the weekend’s fixture at The Hawthorns.
Richards is keen to demonstrate his passion, as shown by his fronting up to fans at Adams Park. Despite this zeal, it is clear that we have benefited by him not being in the side. His positional sense at centre back is non-existent and he cannot be allowed to resume that role. The huge gaps where he should be have been have disappeared and we look organised, to an extent. Again, was it firstly Hutton’s injury,and then Richards’ own knock which forced these changes rather than Garde’s brilliance?
Moving over to left back, it was just a complete no-brainer to drop Richardson. To be fair to Garde, this is not a new omission and Bacuna had been filling in until Cissokho was recalled. Cissokho won’t win any prizes for his forward play and his crossing is usually pretty awful but just having a left back by trade makes us much more solid. Although it was blatantly obvious, credit goes to Garde on this one for temporarily resolving this issue until Amavi returns.
Lastly, the introduction of Libor Kozák was greeted like we had signed Alan Shearer in his heyday. Over the last couple of months, Rudy Gestede had been, frankly, one of the laziest players I can ever remember seeing in a Villa shirt. Kozák’s inclusion in the team is better late than never, although fans had been crying out for him to be given a chance for months. It seems to be a recurring theme with Villa that things get so bad, to the point that even when they could not get any worse, and we still don’t take action or try something different. Kozák immediately worked hard, linked up play and made a nuisance of himself in the air. The switch was simple and we were finally playing with a presence up front.
Many people were feeling sheepish after Gestede scored on Saturday. I don’t feel there is a need to be; any criticism of his effort and performances was more than deserved and justified (and I mean criticism rather than moronic abuse) and he has at least responded with some effort and determination.
I said after the Crystal Palace win that it was no coincidence that we won without Guzan, Hutton, Richardson, Gestede or Richards at centre back. These five men have been problem players for us. I just wonder to what extent injuries and circumstance forced Garde’s hand in arriving at his choices to finally dispense with them.
Although the recent performances have been a huge improvement, we still lack a clinical striker to put our chances away. That is my worry. I do believe that Garde is having some effect and we have actually lost just three games in the last nine, which is progress. It shows that we are becoming harder to beat. We may have eradicated the conceding of incredibly soft goals by changing the personnel, which at least gives us half a chance in games. Sadly, we haven’t yet shown that we can convert chances without getting lucky breaks. As long as this remains the case, it is dangerous to believe that we are suddenly equipped to survive the damage which has already been done.
Please remember we have also been very unlucky with many of the goals that we have conceded. Lots of deflections etc.
spot on…great article…Garde is a good manager though who has little to work with relative to the task.Those responsible for going into the season with the likes of Guzan Hutton Agbonlahor as first teamers should be held to account.
Also please remember Garde will not pick anyone who’s fitness is not up to the high tempo he wants to play and it’s evidence of the team getting fitter means they don’t switch off in the last 10, Kozak in U21’s fitness had slipped the tempo is slower etc, Garde said he had worked his socks off for the 2 weeks prior to be being picked. He said players had bought into his ideas are seeing the results, those who won’t or can’t get there workmate and fitness up won’t play. Remember he came from an Arsenal regime were Wenger won’t even look at a player who cannot run box to box for 90 mins regardless of ability, think Garde is of the same mould.